UFC 91 Preview (and why YOU should care)

Welcome Ladies and Gentleman,

UFC 91 is scheduled for tonight at 10PM (EST) on PPV. The main event of the evening will feature the return of Randy "The Natural" Couture v Brock Lesnar for Couture's Heavyweight championship belt.

(My apologies to any hardcore MMA fans who will be reading this post as most of this is old news to you. But scroll down if you're only here for the predictions.)

I won't bore you with the details of the past year's developments so I will give you the abridged recap of the past year or so in the UFC's heavyweight division: Randy Couture was the UFC champion last year. During a contract dispute between he and the UFC, the promotion crowns an interim champ while things with Randy got sorted out (for better or worse). The interim champ, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira ("Big Nog") was scheduled to defend his belt against Frank Mir after the conclusion of this season's The Ultimate Fighter on Spike TV. During the taping of TUF, Randy and the UFC settled their differences which did not allow for the scheduling of a title unification bout between Big Nog and Randy. The opponent chosen by the UFC for Randy's belt was Brock Lesnar.

Why Brock?
(1) $ - This is a big money match up between two recognizable names. There are so many ways this bout can be promoted (and analyzed): wrestler v. wrestler (not to be confused with pro wrestler); experience v. youth; small heavyweight v huge heavyweight; champ with a year long layoff v challenger who has recently competed. No matter how you slice it, this main event has the making of a blockbuster.
(2) Vendetta - Many have said that Dana White (UFC President) saw this as a "punishment" match for Randy after what he put the company through. Though vindictive, it is reasonable to say that they lose nothing if Randy loses the belt to Brock. It would reinvigorate the heavyweight division which has been somewhat neglected the past few years. The UFC would also be able to expect good returns of future Randy Couture main events because people live "The Natural".
(3) No one else? - There are several heavyweights in the division now but the ones that have been in the UFC for a while have not had impressive performances while those heavyweights that joined over the past several months have made huge strides towards what will eventually be a title shot (if they continue to win). But NONE of them have the physique and instant recognition that Lesnar does.

Though an Mixed Martial Arts (MMA, for short) neophyte, Lesnar has a lot of crossover appeal from his days in the WWE. Let's not forget that he does have a legitimate base for MMA with his background as as NCAA wrestling champ. Make no mistake. Brock Lesnar, according to many, does not deserve a title shot after only being 2-1 in his short MMA career. This is still a business and the UFC is striking while the iron is hot.

This PPV event has the potential to be a transcendental moment for MMA. It could put MMA firmly in the American sports landscape and people will start seeing it as another combat sport on par with boxing (if not better than boxing). Tonight could be the start of a new way of thinking about MMA. The American consciousness could begin to shift away from seeing MMA as simply a modern version of the Bloodsport movies and underground (and illegal) MMA groups that existed in the 80's and early 90's. This change in paradigm is critical for mainstream acceptance of MMA. And though the UFC is the leader of the MMA movement, we cannot forget that it is simply the big fish in the pond. Much like MLB dominates professional baseball while the minor league system and independent baseball leagues still manage to survive. Other promotions like Affliction, Strikeforce, and WEC will aid the UFC in this movement but it won't be easy and acceptance of the sport will not take place overnight... but tonight's event will come close to being an overnight coup.

With all that said... time for predictions. Many thanks to Jorge who has taken the time to provide his insight on tonight's card. My comments and prediction will follow his:

UNDERCARD--
Matt Brown v. Ryan Thomas -
Well, At this point I'll have to go for Brown. He definitely showed he had determination and skill during the show. His bout with Sadollah was a true war and there's no shame in losing the the guy that won the whole thing. I don't really know much about Thomas except that he has been in a winning streak in smaller mid-west organizations. Although Brown just lost to Kim via decision, I think he will "welcome" Thomas into the UFC and show him the difference between the farm leagues and the big time show.
[I agree with J on this one. A rude welcoming is in store for Thomas. Though I don't think he'll be a pushover. I expect a decision for Brown]

Mark Bocek v. Alvin Robinson -
Bocek is great on the ground, but Robinson is sick in the ground. He has great transitions and I think he will overwhelm Bocek. Bocek is coming off two loses to [Frankie] Edgar and [Mac] Danzig, while Robinson has a loss against KenFlo. They both have something to prove, but I think Robinson will pull it off.
[Again I concur with J, but I suspect it'll be more due to experience edge Robinson has. However, expect Bocek to get some chances to finish the fight. Robinson by TKO - a little G'n'P in the 2nd round]

Jeremy Stephens v. Rafael Dos Anjos -
Stephens has been around and he had a nice winning streak until he faced Spencer Fisher. Although I think this will be a good match, Dos Anjos has better BJJ. He also has more high profile fights, albeit in Japan without a cage. I say Dos Anjos.
[My gut is telling me to go with Stephens even though my brain is screaming dos Anjos. Cage experience trumps impact debut once again tonight. Unanimous decision for Stephens despite a good showing for Gracie Fusion's dos Anjos]

Jorge Gurgel v. Aaron Riley -
Riley is virtual unknown that has been in a lot of fights but never wins against any B class or above fighter. Gurgel is a guy that in my opinion should stick to coaching because with his skills he should be finishing dudes instead of eating a lot of punches and losing decisions. I go with Riley on principle, although Gurgel will most likely submit him in the 2nd.
[I told J earlier, I want to root for Gurgel and I'm all for the "make the fight exciting by trading punches with your opponent" but he just doesn't have the striking chops to keep standing. If Gurgel can mix in some takedowns and sub attempts then MAYBE he can grind out a decision victory but I suspect his ego and misplaced pride will get in the way of a proper gameplan. Riley is 3-3 in his last 6 fights but the losses came to Ryan Shultz, Eddie Alvarez, and Spencer Fisher. Not a bad list. Gurgel wouldn't fare much better against those 3. Riley by decision - Gurgel's too good to be subbed and something tells me Riley won't be able to finish it with his striking.]

MAIN CARD--
Dustin Hazelett v. Tamdan McCroy - Tamdam who? Hazelett is still a C level, maybe B level fighter, but he's way better that a guy that gets along with his size. I McLovin via Sub.
[HAHA McCrory who? Yeah yeah he may get no love but McLovin may have his hands full. If it was a battle of nicknames Hazelett's got it hands down-McLovin' vs. The Barn Cat?? No contest, folks!!!- but Hazelett has faced better competition which should give him the edge. Could be a sleeper fight of the night if other major bouts end quickly. McLovin by a super-sweet RNC in the 3rd.]

Demian Maia v. Nate Quarry -
I respect Maia a lot. I think his BJJ is first class and he can definitely scrap. However, Quarry is the man, and he's always improving. Maia has not been dominant in any of the fights I've seen and I think Quarry is going to inflict too much damage even on the ground. I think Quarry has enough sub defense to keep Maia at bay and continue to inflict damage. The rock via TKO strikes.
[Maia has 3 consecutive Submission of the Night honors. And we had to wait nearly 7 months to see Quarry after the embarrassing showing by Starnes. I think this may make Quarry vulnerable in the early going but once he settles in I think he'll be tough to beat. If Maia can slap a sub on early then it may be lights out for Nate but I'm giving this to Quarry as Maia hasn't faced anyone that has as good standup as Quarry. Quarry by KO in the 2nd]

Gabriel Gonzaga v. Josh Hendricks - GG wins via anything he wants to do. Hendricks is in his twilight and this should be a walk in the park for GG. Now Hendricks does hit hard and is a solid wrestler so GG does need to avoid showing off and he has to watch his cardio specially if this goes to the later rounds. I say GG via.. duh... sub.
[I agree that this is a walk in the park for Napao. This is just a set-up for one of the better heavyweights to regain some recognition and maybe work his way up to a title shot. Napao by sub early 2nd -- possibly late in the first round.]

Kenny Florian v. Joe Stevenson -
Now this can be a really good fight, or a bore fest. Given the way KenFlo handled himself against Huerta we may see him bicycle around and picking shots from a distance. The worst thing Stevenson can do is engage in a stand-up battle. I think Kenflo can win this because he has better cardio and his way to slick for Stevenson to submit. I fear it may be a decision as KenFLo "evades" a la Machida and earns the judges votes on points. I hope I'm wrong and Stevenson pushes KenFlo to the cage takes him down and makes this a fight!
[I think the gameplan Jorge mentioned is correct but I think Stevenson's frustration will force Kenny to engage a little and that's where the fight will be won. Neither one has a major advantage on the ground and both have good cardio. I suspect this bout could have a quick end if one of these guys can get a couple of good shots in. Neither one has knockout power IMO and neither one has a glass jaw... but the one who can get the better of the mini-flurries will win this bout... by decision. Agree on possible fight of the night honors.]

Randy Couture v. Brock Lesnar -
Experience v Youth, Strategy v power, Skill v raw strength... we could go on all night. I'm worried about Lesnar's size, strength and explosiveness. I'm worried about Lesnar's hulking size and ability to hold people on the mat. I'm worried because this mastodon actually has footwork and will not be as easy a target to punch in the face. Finally I'm worried because Couture's greco clinch and dirty boxing may be simply shrugged off and nullified. I think Lesnar's main weakness is submission defense, unfortunately for Couure that means he has to tangle with Lesnar and possibly go to the ground. I think Couture can do it, I think he can frustrate Lesnar with strikes and leg kicks and get him on the mat, work a good mount and rain strikes on him. But in the end I'm worried about Lesnar doing what we all know he can do and put an exclamation point on Randy's career. I'll say Couture, because he has a real shot, but also because I'm hoping against hope.
[I don't want to repeat a lot of what has already been said but this is by far one of the toughest fights I've ever had to predict. There are just so many unknowns and what-ifs. Will Lesnar's size be a non-factor since Couture had large heavyweights in training camp? Will Randy's experience trump Lesnar's hunger to be champion? Will there be ring rust for "The Natural"? Will the "big game jitters" affect Brock? Ultimately, I think the fight is Brock's to lose. He runs on adrenaline and works well at feeding off of the crowd (probably picked up from his WWE days). If the fans back Randy, he'll play the "bad guy" role. If they root for him - unlikely - he'll get super pumped. If he lets the crowd get to him, his amplified adrenaline rush could cause him to break his gameplan or get a little too excited and make mistakes... which Randy could capitalize on. Couture is a master strategist and I am sure Randy will have a great gameplan. The question is whether he will be able to implement it. I feel that, for Lesnar, a loss at this stage of his career would do more for his development as an MMA fighter. But I've worked out all possibilities I could think of and I honestly cannot see Randy do anything to really beat Lesnar. If Couture loses, we could see him next against either dos Santos (who looked really good against Werdum last month) or Gonzaga if he wins tonight. There is the chance that Randy grinds out a decision victory. In the end, I think his layoff hurts him and Brock gets the win. I honestly don't know how. He won't be able to sub Randy, though I think he maybe able to overwhelm him with his size and wild striking. Ladies and gents, we will have a new heavyweight champion tonight... I think. lol.]

This should indeed be a good night for MMA.

I'll see you all back here tomorrow as I review how we did in our predictions.

- AG

I shaved my beard and WTF!...

Hello once again as I usher you through the inner workings of my scrambled brain.

I've had some people asking me about my beard lately. During finals week, when I was in college, I would get superstitious and once classes ended for the semester I would not shave until I took all my finals. But I'm not in school any more and for some odd reason I decided to grow my hair out a little (on the top of my head AND on my face)... for no legitimate reason. I didn't even know when I would end up shaving again.

I figured the timing was right for it to serve as an Evan Tanner tribute beard (oh, just Google it if you don't know who or what I'm talking about) but that wasn't it. Maybe I could use the election as my cover story. For a while I even vowed that if John McCain were to win, I would continue growing my hair - including facial hair - for 4 more years until the next presidential election. But the election came and went and I didn't shave. Eventually, I just got tired of it (as I often am when it comes to my facial hair). I find myself cycling through facial "looks": sporting the goatee, being clean shaven, growing the beard... and other variations in between (except the stand-alone mustache... looks funny on me).

So I shaved my beard. I took pictures of the carnage in my bathroom sink but decided to spare you all the details so there will be no posting of the evidence here. You'll just have to take my word for it. Lets just say if there was a "Locks of Love" for facial hair, I would have TOTALLY donated it... but it was just trashcan-bound.

But you know... all this talk of waste and useless things reminds me of something I've heard lately. It's gotten so deep under my skin... I can't keep it inside any more!!

Through all the political coverage for days after Election Day all I kept hearing was how Barack Obama's win was historically significant. I am not disagree with that (how can one dispute that??). What I am hating is the mangling of the English language in the process!!! This is a historic event in American history NOT "an historic" event. WTF is 'anistoric' anyway!?!??!! Anistoric isn't proper use of the article "a/an"!! Oh, I'm sorry... is this a new dialect of English? I didn't realize the 'h' in historic (or historical) was silent!!

I mean with the world wide inter-web nets available to us, can't an editor or assistant producer look up the grammar rules??? I was able to find 2 reputable resources after 35 seconds of searching online: (1) http://www.learnenglish.de/grammar/articlestext.htm and (2) http://owl.english.purdue.edu/owl/resource/540/01/

Folks, this misuse and blatant disregard of the English language is ridiculous. It also happens to be one of my many pet peeves. (For a wonderful list of other modern butchering "modifications" of the English language, click here. Definitely worth a look.)

*sigh*

Sadly, that's all I have for you today but....
SPOILER ALERT:: Tomorrow's SPECIAL weekend entry will be a preview of UFC 91 (along with guest commentary and predictions) and why it matters EVEN to those of you who don't know - or care - about MMA.

My weekend

Hi again everyone,

Well, I had a busy weekend and I'm sure many of you could care less about what I did (or did not) do but, nevertheless, here is my recap of my weekend.

My friend Jorge was competing in a grappling competition in Newark this past weekend (nagafighter.com for those of you who might be interested to learn more). I agreed to take him to Newark for the weigh-ins on Friday evening (and to the competition on Saturday). After work on Friday afternoon, I had the pleasure of driving from Brooklyn to Manhattan (FUN!) then navigating through Manhattan rush-hour traffic (FUN FUN!!!) trying to make it to the News Corp building at a reasonable hour to pick up Jorge. The weigh-ins were from 5pm-8pm (unlike last year when I think they were available until 9pm for the weigh-ins). So with the convergence of not finding a spot where I can idle outside News Corp, Jorge getting out late (after 6:30pm), the usual Friday crowd leaving the city through the West Side tunnels, and the 8pm deadline, I was extremely stressed out.

Did I forget to mention that I had virtually no gas in the tank and was hoping the drops of gas that WERE in the tank could get us to NJ? Every 5 minutes I announced to Jorge how far I thought we could make it with what little gas was left: "I'm pretty sure we can make it to the venue with what we've got left"; "If we can make it through the tunnel, I think we can make it all the way to the weigh-ins"; "There's a chance we can make it through the tunnel but we might have to hit one of the gas stations on the other side"; "Is there a gas station that we can hit up before we get onto the Holland Tunnel??"; "Hey Jorge, I might need you to push us through the tunnel. I know you haven't eaten all day but, how tired are you exactly??"

The only thing that eased my mind a bit was my familiarity with the route to Essex Community College since my aunt's house is a few minutes from there. We made it with enough time (and gas) to take care of business. If he had not made his desired weight - light heavyweight - he would have had to go into the cruiserweight competition since there was no time to stop by the gym for an emergency "sweat session". [For those who are curious, we did NOT get gas in Jersey and STILL had enough gas to get Jorge back to Brooklyn!!! But I was sweating bullets on the BQE constantly shifting between "N" and "D" whenever I could.]

The next morning, Jorge and I (accompanied by the Ebola monkey: Anthony) made our way to Newark once again. I knew that he wouldn't be competing early so I wasn't worried about our lateness but I didn't know if Jorge's weight cut would affect his performance. For the most part, I'm merely the cameraman on these adventures. As long as I have my angle to tape his bouts, film in the video camera, and enough battery life for my recordings, I'm good.

Long story short, Jorge was 0-for-2. Others competing that day from his school didn't fare much better as we think only one of them managed to win a bout (out of 4 competitors in two different divisions each). The ride home was tough since I always feel like dead-weight at these events. I'm an MMA fan but I can't give Jorge any technical advice during his bouts. The majority of guys who compete here have coaches in their corner: sometimes it's a fellow "classmate" at their school while others have their school's instructor directing them. It's unfair but it is what it is. Almost makes me want to join Tiger Schulmann's adult grappling classes in Rego Park . Who knows...

But the event wasn't a total loss. We got to meet former UFC welterweight champ, Matt Serra and IMO this year's favorite to win the lightweight competition in the Ultimate Fighter, Brooklyn's own Phillipe Nover. Serra's great but Nover is part of the new guard of up-and-coming fighters out of the Northeast who will take the MMA world by storm. And I'm a huge mark for Nover!
(Jorge flexing with Matt Serra)
(Me chillin' with Phillipe Nover)

I planned Sunday to be a rest day. After all, getting up early on a Saturday is a big no-no for me. As a border-line narcoleptic, I enjoy my sleep, especially on the weekends. I flaked on family plans for Sunday so that I could rest (my uncle had invited the family over for lunch). But when I found out that my friend Asqui had led his Hillcrest H.S. boys' soccer to the PSAL 'B' league finals, there was no way I was going to miss that game. I had tried to find ways to get out of work to see the team's final few games in the regular season to no avail. I had honestly forgotten about the team until I received a text message from him mid-week about their game on Sunday. He failed to mention in his text that it was the freaking finals and I didn't put two-and-two together until that morning when I realized that they were playing the game at LIU's Brooklyn campus which was unusual.

So once again I got up early on Sunday and drove out with my video camera in hand. I still had Jorge's tripod in my possession so I figured I'd go record the soccer game and then stop by Jorge's apartment (also in Brooklyn) to drop off the tripod. Hillcrest scored first and fell behind 2-1 as the first half ended but a penalty shot for the Hillcrest team allowed them to even the score at 2 by halftime. The second half started fairly even but Jamaica took advantage of Hillcrest's inability to defend the counter-attack off of the long ball and fell behind 4-2 and were unable to score losing 5-2.

I felt bad for Asqui and his boys but they've been getting better every season and I have no doubt that I'll be back at the LIU campus next November watching his Hillcrest Hawks dominate their opponent in the PSAL 'B' league soccer finals! I'm proud of Asqui and hope that he doesn't let this loss get him down. There is only so much one can do with limited talent and he was able to take his kids to the finals. Simply amazing!

OK... that's enough for today... I've chewed your ears off (figuratively) and thank you for taking the time to read my ramblings.

Until next time, faithful reader...