Welcome Ladies and Gentleman,
UFC 91 is scheduled for tonight at 10PM (EST) on PPV. The main event of the evening will feature the return of Randy "The Natural" Couture v Brock Lesnar for Couture's Heavyweight championship belt.
(My apologies to any hardcore MMA fans who will be reading this post as most of this is old news to you. But scroll down if you're only here for the predictions.)
I won't bore you with the details of the past year's developments so I will give you the abridged recap of the past year or so in the UFC's heavyweight division: Randy Couture was the UFC champion last year. During a contract dispute between he and the UFC, the promotion crowns an interim champ while things with Randy got sorted out (for better or worse). The interim champ, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira ("Big Nog") was scheduled to defend his belt against Frank Mir after the conclusion of this season's The Ultimate Fighter on Spike TV. During the taping of TUF, Randy and the UFC settled their differences which did not allow for the scheduling of a title unification bout between Big Nog and Randy. The opponent chosen by the UFC for Randy's belt was Brock Lesnar.
Why Brock?
(1) $ - This is a big money match up between two recognizable names. There are so many ways this bout can be promoted (and analyzed): wrestler v. wrestler (not to be confused with pro wrestler); experience v. youth; small heavyweight v huge heavyweight; champ with a year long layoff v challenger who has recently competed. No matter how you slice it, this main event has the making of a blockbuster.
(2) Vendetta - Many have said that Dana White (UFC President) saw this as a "punishment" match for Randy after what he put the company through. Though vindictive, it is reasonable to say that they lose nothing if Randy loses the belt to Brock. It would reinvigorate the heavyweight division which has been somewhat neglected the past few years. The UFC would also be able to expect good returns of future Randy Couture main events because people live "The Natural".
(3) No one else? - There are several heavyweights in the division now but the ones that have been in the UFC for a while have not had impressive performances while those heavyweights that joined over the past several months have made huge strides towards what will eventually be a title shot (if they continue to win). But NONE of them have the physique and instant recognition that Lesnar does.
Though an Mixed Martial Arts (MMA, for short) neophyte, Lesnar has a lot of crossover appeal from his days in the WWE. Let's not forget that he does have a legitimate base for MMA with his background as as NCAA wrestling champ. Make no mistake. Brock Lesnar, according to many, does not deserve a title shot after only being 2-1 in his short MMA career. This is still a business and the UFC is striking while the iron is hot.
This PPV event has the potential to be a transcendental moment for MMA. It could put MMA firmly in the American sports landscape and people will start seeing it as another combat sport on par with boxing (if not better than boxing). Tonight could be the start of a new way of thinking about MMA. The American consciousness could begin to shift away from seeing MMA as simply a modern version of the Bloodsport movies and underground (and illegal) MMA groups that existed in the 80's and early 90's. This change in paradigm is critical for mainstream acceptance of MMA. And though the UFC is the leader of the MMA movement, we cannot forget that it is simply the big fish in the pond. Much like MLB dominates professional baseball while the minor league system and independent baseball leagues still manage to survive. Other promotions like Affliction, Strikeforce, and WEC will aid the UFC in this movement but it won't be easy and acceptance of the sport will not take place overnight... but tonight's event will come close to being an overnight coup.
With all that said... time for predictions. Many thanks to Jorge who has taken the time to provide his insight on tonight's card. My comments and prediction will follow his:
UNDERCARD--
Matt Brown v. Ryan Thomas -
Well, At this point I'll have to go for Brown. He definitely showed he had determination and skill during the show. His bout with Sadollah was a true war and there's no shame in losing the the guy that won the whole thing. I don't really know much about Thomas except that he has been in a winning streak in smaller mid-west organizations. Although Brown just lost to Kim via decision, I think he will "welcome" Thomas into the UFC and show him the difference between the farm leagues and the big time show.
[I agree with J on this one. A rude welcoming is in store for Thomas. Though I don't think he'll be a pushover. I expect a decision for Brown]
Mark Bocek v. Alvin Robinson -
Bocek is great on the ground, but Robinson is sick in the ground. He has great transitions and I think he will overwhelm Bocek. Bocek is coming off two loses to [Frankie] Edgar and [Mac] Danzig, while Robinson has a loss against KenFlo. They both have something to prove, but I think Robinson will pull it off.
[Again I concur with J, but I suspect it'll be more due to experience edge Robinson has. However, expect Bocek to get some chances to finish the fight. Robinson by TKO - a little G'n'P in the 2nd round]
Jeremy Stephens v. Rafael Dos Anjos -
Stephens has been around and he had a nice winning streak until he faced Spencer Fisher. Although I think this will be a good match, Dos Anjos has better BJJ. He also has more high profile fights, albeit in Japan without a cage. I say Dos Anjos.
[My gut is telling me to go with Stephens even though my brain is screaming dos Anjos. Cage experience trumps impact debut once again tonight. Unanimous decision for Stephens despite a good showing for Gracie Fusion's dos Anjos]
Jorge Gurgel v. Aaron Riley -
Riley is virtual unknown that has been in a lot of fights but never wins against any B class or above fighter. Gurgel is a guy that in my opinion should stick to coaching because with his skills he should be finishing dudes instead of eating a lot of punches and losing decisions. I go with Riley on principle, although Gurgel will most likely submit him in the 2nd.
[I told J earlier, I want to root for Gurgel and I'm all for the "make the fight exciting by trading punches with your opponent" but he just doesn't have the striking chops to keep standing. If Gurgel can mix in some takedowns and sub attempts then MAYBE he can grind out a decision victory but I suspect his ego and misplaced pride will get in the way of a proper gameplan. Riley is 3-3 in his last 6 fights but the losses came to Ryan Shultz, Eddie Alvarez, and Spencer Fisher. Not a bad list. Gurgel wouldn't fare much better against those 3. Riley by decision - Gurgel's too good to be subbed and something tells me Riley won't be able to finish it with his striking.]
MAIN CARD--
Dustin Hazelett v. Tamdan McCroy - Tamdam who? Hazelett is still a C level, maybe B level fighter, but he's way better that a guy that gets along with his size. I McLovin via Sub.
[HAHA McCrory who? Yeah yeah he may get no love but McLovin may have his hands full. If it was a battle of nicknames Hazelett's got it hands down-McLovin' vs. The Barn Cat?? No contest, folks!!!- but Hazelett has faced better competition which should give him the edge. Could be a sleeper fight of the night if other major bouts end quickly. McLovin by a super-sweet RNC in the 3rd.]
Demian Maia v. Nate Quarry -
I respect Maia a lot. I think his BJJ is first class and he can definitely scrap. However, Quarry is the man, and he's always improving. Maia has not been dominant in any of the fights I've seen and I think Quarry is going to inflict too much damage even on the ground. I think Quarry has enough sub defense to keep Maia at bay and continue to inflict damage. The rock via TKO strikes.
[Maia has 3 consecutive Submission of the Night honors. And we had to wait nearly 7 months to see Quarry after the embarrassing showing by Starnes. I think this may make Quarry vulnerable in the early going but once he settles in I think he'll be tough to beat. If Maia can slap a sub on early then it may be lights out for Nate but I'm giving this to Quarry as Maia hasn't faced anyone that has as good standup as Quarry. Quarry by KO in the 2nd]
Gabriel Gonzaga v. Josh Hendricks - GG wins via anything he wants to do. Hendricks is in his twilight and this should be a walk in the park for GG. Now Hendricks does hit hard and is a solid wrestler so GG does need to avoid showing off and he has to watch his cardio specially if this goes to the later rounds. I say GG via.. duh... sub.
[I agree that this is a walk in the park for Napao. This is just a set-up for one of the better heavyweights to regain some recognition and maybe work his way up to a title shot. Napao by sub early 2nd -- possibly late in the first round.]
Kenny Florian v. Joe Stevenson -
Now this can be a really good fight, or a bore fest. Given the way KenFlo handled himself against Huerta we may see him bicycle around and picking shots from a distance. The worst thing Stevenson can do is engage in a stand-up battle. I think Kenflo can win this because he has better cardio and his way to slick for Stevenson to submit. I fear it may be a decision as KenFLo "evades" a la Machida and earns the judges votes on points. I hope I'm wrong and Stevenson pushes KenFlo to the cage takes him down and makes this a fight!
[I think the gameplan Jorge mentioned is correct but I think Stevenson's frustration will force Kenny to engage a little and that's where the fight will be won. Neither one has a major advantage on the ground and both have good cardio. I suspect this bout could have a quick end if one of these guys can get a couple of good shots in. Neither one has knockout power IMO and neither one has a glass jaw... but the one who can get the better of the mini-flurries will win this bout... by decision. Agree on possible fight of the night honors.]
Randy Couture v. Brock Lesnar -
Experience v Youth, Strategy v power, Skill v raw strength... we could go on all night. I'm worried about Lesnar's size, strength and explosiveness. I'm worried about Lesnar's hulking size and ability to hold people on the mat. I'm worried because this mastodon actually has footwork and will not be as easy a target to punch in the face. Finally I'm worried because Couture's greco clinch and dirty boxing may be simply shrugged off and nullified. I think Lesnar's main weakness is submission defense, unfortunately for Couure that means he has to tangle with Lesnar and possibly go to the ground. I think Couture can do it, I think he can frustrate Lesnar with strikes and leg kicks and get him on the mat, work a good mount and rain strikes on him. But in the end I'm worried about Lesnar doing what we all know he can do and put an exclamation point on Randy's career. I'll say Couture, because he has a real shot, but also because I'm hoping against hope.
[I don't want to repeat a lot of what has already been said but this is by far one of the toughest fights I've ever had to predict. There are just so many unknowns and what-ifs. Will Lesnar's size be a non-factor since Couture had large heavyweights in training camp? Will Randy's experience trump Lesnar's hunger to be champion? Will there be ring rust for "The Natural"? Will the "big game jitters" affect Brock? Ultimately, I think the fight is Brock's to lose. He runs on adrenaline and works well at feeding off of the crowd (probably picked up from his WWE days). If the fans back Randy, he'll play the "bad guy" role. If they root for him - unlikely - he'll get super pumped. If he lets the crowd get to him, his amplified adrenaline rush could cause him to break his gameplan or get a little too excited and make mistakes... which Randy could capitalize on. Couture is a master strategist and I am sure Randy will have a great gameplan. The question is whether he will be able to implement it. I feel that, for Lesnar, a loss at this stage of his career would do more for his development as an MMA fighter. But I've worked out all possibilities I could think of and I honestly cannot see Randy do anything to really beat Lesnar. If Couture loses, we could see him next against either dos Santos (who looked really good against Werdum last month) or Gonzaga if he wins tonight. There is the chance that Randy grinds out a decision victory. In the end, I think his layoff hurts him and Brock gets the win. I honestly don't know how. He won't be able to sub Randy, though I think he maybe able to overwhelm him with his size and wild striking. Ladies and gents, we will have a new heavyweight champion tonight... I think. lol.]
This should indeed be a good night for MMA.
I'll see you all back here tomorrow as I review how we did in our predictions.
- AG
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